I think predicting out to 2050 is a laudable idea, but entering the realm of tea leaf reading. Too many variables are involved for anyone to accurately predict out to 2050. I don't think anyone can possibly model all of the potential shifts in regulations and policies, administration changes, supply and trade issues, market competition, etc. Complicating matters, is the wide variations in the industry data analysis that I've seen.
Still, here is my best effort to predict out to 2050 and why...
According to
US Energy Information Administration (EIA) from 2009 to 2022, installed solar capacity increased at an average rate of 44% per year.
According to the
Solar Energy Industry Association, the average annual growth of the solar market over the past 10 years was approx. 24%
While the bulk of that growth is predicted to be in utility solar installations, I think the IRA’s new tax provisions (still being implemented in their final form) will increase the growth of the commercial solar market segment due to the IRA’s provisions on transferability, direct pay, and the adder credits.
In 2010, the
installed commercial capacity in the country stood at roughly one gigawatt direct current. By 2022, it had grown to almost
17 gigawatts. So, if the commercial solar grows at an average annual rate of 44%/per by 2050 it would be 127.16 GW. If it grows by an average annual rate of 24% per year, by 2050 it would be 69.36 GW
My tea leaf prediction is that the commercial solar market will be somewhere between 69.36 GW and 127.16 GW in 2050.
